Stade Rennais FC 1901 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stade Rennais FC 1901 50.8% · Draw 24.2% · RC Strasbourg Alsace 25.0% Why Stade Rennais FC 1901 is favoured Stade Rennais FC 1901's Elo (1579) is +14 over RC Strasbourg Alsace (1565); high confidence. Recent: Stade Rennais FC 1901 4W-1D-2L · RC Strasbourg Alsace 2W-1D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.1, RC Strasbourg Alsace -0.4. Form depth Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.1 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (Stade Rennais FC 1901 2.1, RC Strasbourg Alsace 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W, 1D, RC Strasbourg Alsace 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-3, 4-1, 1-0.