Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · RC Strasbourg Alsace
To win
+$16.80
Total payout
$36.80
Joint prob
63.2%
Combined odds
1.84
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+16.3%
Expected value: +$3.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.00 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 4% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$3.11 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$14.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
RC Strasbourg Alsace scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.2% · fair market: 52.4% · edge: +20.5%
Model probabilities RC Strasbourg Alsace 63.2% · Draw 20.5% · AJ Auxerre 16.3% Why RC Strasbourg Alsace is favoured RC Strasbourg Alsace's Elo (1565) is +102 over AJ Auxerre (1464); high confidence. Recent: RC Strasbourg Alsace 2W-1D-5L · AJ Auxerre 3W-1D-4L (last 8). Goal differential per game: RC Strasbourg Alsace -0.8, AJ Auxerre -0.8. Form depth RC Strasbourg Alsace: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/5 on the road). AJ Auxerre: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (RC Strasbourg Alsace 1.9, AJ Auxerre 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — RC Strasbourg Alsace 0W, 2D, AJ Auxerre 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 3-0, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 61.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 63.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 63.2% vs market 52.4% (edge +20.5%, suggested Kelly +19.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.