Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Olympique de Marseille
To win
+$19.60
Total payout
$39.60
Joint prob
59.1%
Combined odds
1.98
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+17.0%
Expected value: +$3.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Olympique de Marseille scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.1% · fair market: 48.8% · edge: +21.1%
Model probabilities Olympique de Marseille 59.1% · Draw 21.5% · Toulouse FC 19.4% Why Olympique de Marseille is favoured Olympique de Marseille's Elo (1622) is +77 over Toulouse FC (1545); high confidence. Recent: Olympique de Marseille 4W-0D-4L · Toulouse FC 2W-4D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Olympique de Marseille +0.6, Toulouse FC +0.1. Form depth Olympique de Marseille: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Toulouse FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Olympique de Marseille on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Olympique de Marseille 1.8, Toulouse FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Olympique de Marseille 0W, 3D, Toulouse FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 2-2, 3-2. +EV vs market home: model 59.1% vs market 48.8% (edge +21.1%, suggested Kelly +17.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.