Feyenoord Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Feyenoord Rotterdam 42.5% · Draw 24.6% · AZ 32.8% Why Feyenoord Rotterdam is favoured AZ's Elo (1573) is +15 over Feyenoord Rotterdam (1558); low confidence. Recent: Feyenoord Rotterdam 5W-2D-1L · AZ 6W-1D-0L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.8, AZ +1.7. Form depth Feyenoord Rotterdam: avg 3.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 4/5 on the road). AZ: avg 2.6 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/3 on the road). Feyenoord Rotterdam on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (Feyenoord Rotterdam 2.1, AZ 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments AZ has a stronger recent record (86% vs 63%) — model favours Feyenoord Rotterdam on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Feyenoord Rotterdam 0W, 2D, AZ 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-3, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.