AFC Ajax scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AFC Ajax 35.1% · Draw 23.3% · AZ 41.6% Why AZ is favoured AZ's Elo (1558) is +62 over AFC Ajax (1496); medium confidence. Recent: AFC Ajax 6W-3D-1L · AZ 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AFC Ajax +1.6, AZ +0.8. Form depth AFC Ajax: avg 2.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 5/5 on the road). AZ: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). AFC Ajax on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (AFC Ajax 2.0, AZ 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — AFC Ajax 0W, 3D, AZ 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 37.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.