SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 29.4% · Draw 17.9% · LDU de Quito 52.8% Why LDU de Quito is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1574) is +60 over LDU de Quito (1514); low confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 4W-4D-2L · LDU de Quito 5W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +0.8, LDU de Quito +0.5. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). LDU de Quito: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). SE Palmeiras on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.5, LDU de Quito 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.