CAR Independiente del Valle scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CAR Independiente del Valle 43.5% · Draw 25.3% · CA Rosario Central 31.2% Why CAR Independiente del Valle is favoured CA Rosario Central's Elo (1530) is +25 over CAR Independiente del Valle (1505); low confidence. Recent: CAR Independiente del Valle 3W-1D-1L · CA Rosario Central 4W-1D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: CAR Independiente del Valle +0.8, CA Rosario Central +1.6. Form depth CAR Independiente del Valle: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). CA Rosario Central: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.2 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). CA Rosario Central on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (CAR Independiente del Valle 1.1, CA Rosario Central 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CA Rosario Central has a stronger recent record (80% vs 60%) — model favours CAR Independiente del Valle on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CAR Independiente del Valle 0W, 1D, CA Rosario Central 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.