CAR Independiente del Valle scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CAR Independiente del Valle 51.9% · Draw 25.9% · Club Libertad Asuncion 22.3% Why CAR Independiente del Valle is favoured Elo essentially level (1485 vs 1490) — winner depends on context. Recent: CAR Independiente del Valle 2W-1D-1L · Club Libertad Asuncion 0W-0D-4L (last 4). Goal differential per game: CAR Independiente del Valle +0.3, Club Libertad Asuncion -1.3. Form depth CAR Independiente del Valle: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/3 on the road). Club Libertad Asuncion: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Club Libertad Asuncion on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (CAR Independiente del Valle 1.8, Club Libertad Asuncion 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.