Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
vs CAR Independiente del Valle_

Most likely scorelines

• 1–3MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  8.3%

  Fair odds

  12.10

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  7.5%

  Fair odds

  13.38

• 1–4+Save pick

  Prob

  6.9%

  Fair odds

  14.60

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  6.4%

  Fair odds

  15.64

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.8%

  Fair odds

  17.29

• 2–3+Save pick

  Prob

  5.3%

  Fair odds

  18.73

• 0–4+Save pick

  Prob

  5.3%

  Fair odds

  18.87

• 2–2+Save pick

  Prob

  4.8%

  Fair odds

  20.71

Universidad Central de Venezuela FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  +9%

  Joint prob

  8.9%

  Naïve (book)

  8.1%

  Fair odds

  11.29

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -4%

  Joint prob

  9.4%

  Naïve (book)

  9.7%

  Fair odds

  10.65

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -7%

  Joint prob

  48.5%

  Naïve (book)

  52.4%

  Fair odds

  2.06

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +5%

  Joint prob

  65.7%

  Naïve (book)

  62.8%

  Fair odds

  1.52

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.