SC Corinthians Paulista scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Corinthians Paulista 48.9% · Draw 25.8% · CA Platense 25.3% Why SC Corinthians Paulista is favoured Elo essentially level (1497 vs 1490) — winner depends on context. Recent: SC Corinthians Paulista 5W-3D-2L · CA Platense 2W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Corinthians Paulista +0.4, CA Platense -0.2. Form depth SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). CA Platense: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (SC Corinthians Paulista 1.4, CA Platense 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context CA Platense has 6 more days of rest (SC Corinthians Paulista 41d, CA Platense 47d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.