Independiente Santa Fe scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Independiente Santa Fe 44.7% · Draw 26.0% · CA Platense 29.3% Why Independiente Santa Fe is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Independiente Santa Fe 0W-2D-2L · CA Platense 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Independiente Santa Fe -0.8, CA Platense +0.0. Form depth Independiente Santa Fe: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). CA Platense: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.0, CA Platense 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.