CA Platense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Platense 50.9% · Draw 26.0% · CA Peñarol 23.1% Why CA Platense is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CA Platense 2W-0D-1L · CA Peñarol 0W-1D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: CA Platense +0.0, CA Peñarol -1.0. Form depth CA Platense: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). CA Peñarol: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). CA Platense on a 2-match winning streak. CA Peñarol on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CA Platense 1.5, CA Peñarol 1.0) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.