Estudiantes de La Plata scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Estudiantes de La Plata 29.6% · Draw 25.4% · CD Independiente Medellín 45.0% Why CD Independiente Medellín is favoured CD Independiente Medellín's Elo (1510) is +20 over Estudiantes de La Plata (1490); low confidence. Recent: Estudiantes de La Plata 1W-3D-1L · CD Independiente Medellín 4W-3D-1L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Estudiantes de La Plata +0.0, CD Independiente Medellín +0.1. Form depth Estudiantes de La Plata: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). CD Independiente Medellín: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). CD Independiente Medellín on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Estudiantes de La Plata 1.1, CD Independiente Medellín 1.2) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Estudiantes de La Plata 0W, 1D, CD Independiente Medellín 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.