CR Flamengo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Flamengo 52.4% · Draw 25.7% · Estudiantes de La Plata 21.9% Why CR Flamengo is favoured Elo essentially level (1509 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CR Flamengo 7W-3D-0L · Estudiantes de La Plata 1W-3D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Flamengo +1.5, Estudiantes de La Plata +0.3. Form depth CR Flamengo: avg 2.2 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 4/6 on the road). Estudiantes de La Plata: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Estudiantes de La Plata on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (CR Flamengo 1.6, Estudiantes de La Plata 1.0) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CR Flamengo 0W, 1D, Estudiantes de La Plata 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-4, 2-1. Context CR Flamengo has 4 more days of rest (CR Flamengo 45d, Estudiantes de La Plata 41d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.