EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 42.5% · Draw 22.1% · Fluminense FC 35.4% Why EC Vitória is favoured Fluminense FC's Elo (1551) is +84 over EC Vitória (1467); high confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 2W-3D-5L · Fluminense FC 3W-0D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.3, Fluminense FC -0.1. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Fluminense FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (EC Vitória 1.5, Fluminense FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — EC Vitória 0W, 4D, Fluminense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 0-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.