Chapecoense AF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Chapecoense AF 36.5% · Draw 22.2% · Mirassol FC 41.3% Why Mirassol FC is favoured Mirassol FC's Elo (1504) is +89 over Chapecoense AF (1415); high confidence. Recent: Chapecoense AF 3W-1D-6L · Mirassol FC 3W-4D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Chapecoense AF -1.1, Mirassol FC +0.0. Form depth Chapecoense AF: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Chapecoense AF 1.0, Mirassol FC 1.6) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Chapecoense AF 0W, 1D, Mirassol FC 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 39.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.