CR Flamengo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Flamengo 53.4% · Draw 22.1% · CA Mineiro 24.5% Why CR Flamengo is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1625) is +68 over CA Mineiro (1556); high confidence. Recent: CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L · CA Mineiro 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Flamengo +0.8, CA Mineiro +0.7. Form depth CR Flamengo: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). CA Mineiro: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (6/7 at home, 0/3 on the road). CA Mineiro on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (CR Flamengo 1.2, CA Mineiro 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CR Flamengo 0W, 2D, CA Mineiro 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-4, 1-1, 1-0.