Cruzeiro EC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cruzeiro EC 59.4% · Draw 21.4% · Clube do Remo 19.1% Why Cruzeiro EC is favoured Cruzeiro EC's Elo (1539) is +78 over Clube do Remo (1460); high confidence. Recent: Cruzeiro EC 6W-0D-4L · Clube do Remo 0W-5D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cruzeiro EC +0.4, Clube do Remo -0.5. Form depth Cruzeiro EC: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 3/7 on the road). Clube do Remo: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Clube do Remo on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Cruzeiro EC 1.8, Clube do Remo 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line.