Coritiba FBC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coritiba FBC 52.6% · Draw 24.6% · Grêmio FBPA 22.8% Why Coritiba FBC is favoured Elo essentially level (1459 vs 1459) — winner depends on context. Recent: Coritiba FBC 3W-3D-4L · Grêmio FBPA 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Coritiba FBC -0.8, Grêmio FBPA -0.7. Form depth Coritiba FBC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Grêmio FBPA: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Coritiba FBC 1.5, Grêmio FBPA 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Coritiba FBC 0W, 1D, Grêmio FBPA 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-2, 5-1.