Chapecoense AF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Chapecoense AF 24.5% · Draw 21.4% · CA Paranaense 54.1% Why CA Paranaense is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1550) is +125 over Chapecoense AF (1425); high confidence. Recent: Chapecoense AF 2W-3D-5L · CA Paranaense 4W-5D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Chapecoense AF -1.0, CA Paranaense +0.4. Form depth Chapecoense AF: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). CA Paranaense: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Chapecoense AF 1.4, CA Paranaense 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Chapecoense AF 0W, 6D, CA Paranaense 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 1-1, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 28.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 24.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.