CA Mineiro scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Mineiro 54.1% · Draw 24.6% · Chapecoense AF 21.3% Why CA Mineiro is favoured CA Mineiro's Elo (1539) is +95 over Chapecoense AF (1444); medium confidence. Recent: CA Mineiro 5W-3D-2L · Chapecoense AF 2W-2D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Mineiro +0.5, Chapecoense AF -0.9. Form depth CA Mineiro: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (CA Mineiro 1.7, Chapecoense AF 1.0) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — CA Mineiro 0W, 4D, Chapecoense AF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-4, 2-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 62.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.