SC Corinthians Paulista scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Corinthians Paulista 51.9% · Draw 25.5% · Chapecoense AF 22.5% Why SC Corinthians Paulista is favoured SC Corinthians Paulista's Elo (1512) is +79 over Chapecoense AF (1432); medium confidence. Recent: SC Corinthians Paulista 4W-3D-3L · Chapecoense AF 1W-2D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Corinthians Paulista +0.5, Chapecoense AF -1.1. Form depth SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (SC Corinthians Paulista 1.7, Chapecoense AF 0.9) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SC Corinthians Paulista 0W, 2D, Chapecoense AF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 59.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.