Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 35.6% · Draw 26.3% · SE Palmeiras 38.0% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1579) is +97 over Mirassol FC (1482); high confidence. Recent: Mirassol FC 2W-4D-4L · SE Palmeiras 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC -0.6, SE Palmeiras +1.2. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 2.1 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Mirassol FC on a 2-draw streak. SE Palmeiras on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Mirassol FC 0.9, SE Palmeiras 1.8) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Mirassol FC 0W, 1D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 32.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.