CA Paranaense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Paranaense 46.4% · Draw 29.2% · Fluminense FC 24.4% Why CA Paranaense is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1556) is +14 over Fluminense FC (1542); medium confidence. Recent: CA Paranaense 6W-3D-1L · Fluminense FC 4W-6D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Paranaense +0.7, Fluminense FC +0.5. Form depth CA Paranaense: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 4/6 on the road). Fluminense FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Fluminense FC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (CA Paranaense 1.4, Fluminense FC 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Paranaense 0W, 2D, Fluminense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 1-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 53.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.