SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 54.1% · Draw 23.2% · CR Vasco da Gama 22.7% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1566) is +123 over CR Vasco da Gama (1444); medium confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 6W-2D-2L · CR Vasco da Gama 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +1.2, CR Vasco da Gama -1.1. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.8, CR Vasco da Gama 0.7) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 2D, CR Vasco da Gama 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-0, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 61.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.