Chapecoense AF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Chapecoense AF 37.1% · Draw 23.7% · CR Flamengo 39.2% Why CR Flamengo is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1536) is +77 over Chapecoense AF (1459); low confidence. Recent: Chapecoense AF 0W-2D-8L · CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Chapecoense AF -1.2, CR Flamengo +1.1. Form depth Chapecoense AF: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Chapecoense AF on a 4-match losing streak. CR Flamengo on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Chapecoense AF 0.8, CR Flamengo 1.9) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Chapecoense AF 0W, 1D, CR Flamengo 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 2-2, 2-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.