Coritiba FBC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coritiba FBC 45.5% · Draw 25.4% · EC Bahia 29.0% Why Coritiba FBC is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1500) is +19 over Coritiba FBC (1481); low confidence. Recent: Coritiba FBC 3W-4D-3L · EC Bahia 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Coritiba FBC +0.0, EC Bahia -0.1. Form depth Coritiba FBC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Coritiba FBC 1.5, EC Bahia 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Coritiba FBC 0W, 2D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-4, 3-1, 1-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.