Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 50.9% · Draw 25.0% · Coritiba FBC 24.2% Why Santos FC is favoured Santos FC's Elo (1515) is +34 over Coritiba FBC (1481); low confidence. Recent: Santos FC 3W-4D-3L · Coritiba FBC 3W-4D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC +0.1, Coritiba FBC -0.2. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Coritiba FBC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Santos FC 1.3, Coritiba FBC 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 2D, Coritiba FBC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-0, 1-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.