Coritiba FBC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coritiba FBC 46.5% · Draw 25.0% · SC Internacional 28.5% Why Coritiba FBC is favoured SC Internacional's Elo (1515) is +35 over Coritiba FBC (1480); low confidence. Recent: Coritiba FBC 4W-3D-3L · SC Internacional 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Coritiba FBC +0.0, SC Internacional +0.3. Form depth Coritiba FBC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). SC Internacional: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Coritiba FBC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Coritiba FBC 1.0, SC Internacional 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Coritiba FBC 0W, 2D, SC Internacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-4, 0-1, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.