PSV scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PSV 56.9% · Draw 22.3% · Club Brugge KV 20.8% Why PSV is favoured PSV's Elo (1588) is +52 over Club Brugge KV (1536); high confidence. Recent: PSV 5W-2D-3L · Club Brugge KV 2W-0D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: PSV +1.2, Club Brugge KV +1.0. Form depth PSV: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Club Brugge KV: avg 3.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Club Brugge KV on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (PSV 2.1, Club Brugge KV 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — PSV 0W, 1D, Club Brugge KV 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 55.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 56.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context PSV has 3 more days of rest (PSV 59d, Club Brugge KV 56d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.