Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lille OSC
To win
+$68.60
Total payout
$88.60
Joint prob
38.4%
Combined odds
4.43
Fair odds
2.60
Edge
+70.2%
Expected value: +$14.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$14.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.90 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 6% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$31.59 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$34.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
FK Bodø/Glimt scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.4% · fair market: 21.8% · edge: +75.9%
Model probabilities FK Bodø/Glimt 39.2% · Draw 22.4% · Lille OSC 38.4% Why FK Bodø/Glimt is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1597) is +49 over FK Bodø/Glimt (1548); high confidence. Recent: FK Bodø/Glimt 1W-0D-2L · Lille OSC 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FK Bodø/Glimt -1.7, Lille OSC -0.2. Form depth FK Bodø/Glimt: avg 1.3 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Lille OSC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (FK Bodø/Glimt 1.4, Lille OSC 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 37.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 39.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.4% vs market 21.8% (edge +75.9%, suggested Kelly +20.5% of bankroll). Context Lille OSC has 7 more days of rest (FK Bodø/Glimt 53d, Lille OSC 60d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.