Club Atlético de Madrid scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Atlético de Madrid 20.9% · Draw 23.1% · FC Bayern München 56.0% Why FC Bayern München is favoured FC Bayern München's Elo (1904) is +205 over Club Atlético de Madrid (1699); high confidence. Recent: Club Atlético de Madrid 8W-1D-1L · FC Bayern München 5W-5D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Club Atlético de Madrid +1.4, FC Bayern München +2.0. Form depth Club Atlético de Madrid: avg 1.9 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 4/6 on the road). FC Bayern München: avg 3.2 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Club Atlético de Madrid on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Club Atlético de Madrid 1.5, FC Bayern München 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Club Atlético de Madrid has a stronger recent record (80% vs 50%) — model favours FC Bayern München on Elo despite Club Atlético de Madrid's form. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Club Atlético de Madrid 0W, 1D, FC Bayern München 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 4-0. Context FC Bayern München has 5 more days of rest (Club Atlético de Madrid 54d, FC Bayern München 59d).