Sporting Clube de Portugal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Portugal 68.5% · Draw 22.9% · LASK Linz 8.6% Why Sporting Clube de Portugal is favoured Sporting Clube de Portugal's Elo (1675) is +196 over LASK Linz (1479); low confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Portugal 7W-3D-0L · LASK Linz 0W-0D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.5, LASK Linz -2.0. Form depth Sporting Clube de Portugal: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). LASK Linz: avg 1.5 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Sporting Clube de Portugal on a 2-match winning streak. LASK Linz on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 71.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.