Paris Saint-Germain FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris Saint-Germain FC 50.5% · Draw 22.3% · FC Barcelona 27.2% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1843) is +22 over FC Barcelona (1820); high confidence. Recent: Paris Saint-Germain FC 6W-2D-1L · FC Barcelona 10W-0D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.3, FC Barcelona +3.2. Form depth Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 4/6 on the road). FC Barcelona: avg 4.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 5/5 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC on a 6-match winning streak. FC Barcelona on a 10-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.7 total goals (Paris Saint-Germain FC 1.9, FC Barcelona 2.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments FC Barcelona has a stronger recent record (100% vs 67%) — model favours Paris Saint-Germain FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W, 1D, FC Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-4, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 48.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 50.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Paris Saint-Germain FC has 4 more days of rest (Paris Saint-Germain FC 57d, FC Barcelona 53d).