SSC Napoli
vs FK Bodø/Glimt_

Most likely scorelines

• 2–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  14.5%

  Fair odds

  6.89

• 3–0+Save pick

  Prob

  14.1%

  Fair odds

  7.08

• 4–0+Save pick

  Prob

  10.3%

  Fair odds

  9.70

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  9.9%

  Fair odds

  10.06

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.1%

  Fair odds

  14.05

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  6.9%

  Fair odds

  14.44

• 5–0+Save pick

  Prob

  6.0%

  Fair odds

  16.62

• 4–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.1%

  Fair odds

  19.78

SSC Napoli scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -11%

  Joint prob

  27.9%

  Naïve (book)

  31.4%

  Fair odds

  3.58

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +8%

  Joint prob

  61.3%

  Naïve (book)

  56.8%

  Fair odds

  1.63

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  +23%

  Joint prob

  1.8%

  Naïve (book)

  1.4%

  Fair odds

  56.07

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  -29%

  Joint prob

  1.9%

  Naïve (book)

  2.6%

  Fair odds

  53.77

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.