Sabah FK scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sabah FK 20.3% · Draw 23.0% · Borussia Dortmund 56.7% Why Borussia Dortmund is favoured Borussia Dortmund's Elo (1660) is +174 over Sabah FK (1485); low confidence. Recent: Sabah FK 1W-0D-1L · Borussia Dortmund 5W-2D-1L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Sabah FK -1.0, Borussia Dortmund +0.9. Form depth Sabah FK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Borussia Dortmund: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Borussia Dortmund has 12 more days of rest (Sabah FK 39d, Borussia Dortmund 51d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.