Aston Villa FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Aston Villa FC 61.3% · Draw 22.5% · Fenerbahçe SK 16.2% Why Aston Villa FC is favoured Aston Villa FC's Elo (1594) is +89 over Fenerbahçe SK (1505); low confidence. Recent: Aston Villa FC 2W-2D-3L · Fenerbahçe SK 0W-1D-0L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Aston Villa FC -0.6, Fenerbahçe SK +0.0. Form depth Aston Villa FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 2/4 on the road). Fenerbahçe SK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Aston Villa FC has 18 more days of rest (Aston Villa FC 51d, Fenerbahçe SK 33d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.