LASK Linz scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities LASK Linz 19.8% · Draw 23.0% · Liverpool FC 57.3% Why Liverpool FC is favoured Liverpool FC's Elo (1654) is +164 over LASK Linz (1490); low confidence. Recent: LASK Linz 0W-0D-1L · Liverpool FC 3W-3D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: LASK Linz -1.0, Liverpool FC +0.1. Form depth LASK Linz: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Liverpool FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/3 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Liverpool FC has 16 more days of rest (LASK Linz 35d, Liverpool FC 51d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.