Viking FK scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Viking FK 5.5% · Draw 24.6% · FC Bayern München 69.9% Why FC Bayern München is favoured FC Bayern München's Elo (1912) is +423 over Viking FK (1489); low confidence. Recent: Viking FK 0W-0D-1L · FC Bayern München 4W-2D-0L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Viking FK -2.0, FC Bayern München +2.8. Form depth Viking FK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). FC Bayern München: avg 3.5 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context FC Bayern München has 12 more days of rest (Viking FK 33d, FC Bayern München 45d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.