Racing Club de Lens scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Racing Club de Lens 40.7% · Draw 22.3% · Sporting Clube de Portugal 37.1% Why Racing Club de Lens is favoured Sporting Clube de Portugal's Elo (1652) is +11 over Racing Club de Lens (1641); high confidence. Recent: Racing Club de Lens 3W-1D-3L · Sporting Clube de Portugal 6W-3D-0L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Racing Club de Lens +0.3, Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.4. Form depth Racing Club de Lens: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Sporting Clube de Portugal: avg 2.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (Racing Club de Lens 1.6, Sporting Clube de Portugal 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Sporting Clube de Portugal has a stronger recent record (67% vs 43%) — model favours Racing Club de Lens on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Calibration Raw model: 38.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 40.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.