FC Bayern München
vs FK Bodø/Glimt_

Most likely scorelines

• 3–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  11.8%

  Fair odds

  8.48

• 4–0+Save pick

  Prob

  10.5%

  Fair odds

  9.48

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  9.9%

  Fair odds

  10.11

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.9%

  Fair odds

  12.72

• 5–0+Save pick

  Prob

  7.5%

  Fair odds

  13.25

• 4–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.0%

  Fair odds

  14.23

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  6.6%

  Fair odds

  15.17

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  5.5%

  Fair odds

  18.08

FC Bayern München scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -8%

  Joint prob

  38.4%

  Naïve (book)

  41.7%

  Fair odds

  2.61

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +4%

  Joint prob

  72.7%

  Naïve (book)

  70.1%

  Fair odds

  1.37

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  +28%

  Joint prob

  2.3%

  Naïve (book)

  1.8%

  Fair odds

  44.28

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  -21%

  Joint prob

  2.3%

  Naïve (book)

  3.0%

  Fair odds

  42.57

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.