Académico de Viseu FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Académico de Viseu FC 58.1% · Draw 22.1% · Rio Ave FC 19.8% Why Académico de Viseu FC is favoured Académico de Viseu FC's Elo (1510) is +63 over Rio Ave FC (1447); low confidence. Recent: Académico de Viseu FC 5W-2D-2L · Rio Ave FC 2W-1D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Académico de Viseu FC +0.2, Rio Ave FC -1.4. Form depth Académico de Viseu FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 3/5 on the road). Rio Ave FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Académico de Viseu FC on a 5-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Académico de Viseu FC 1.9, Rio Ave FC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Académico de Viseu FC 0W, 2D, Rio Ave FC 0W (draws are common). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.