Académico de Viseu FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Académico de Viseu FC 47.2% · Draw 27.9% · Vitória SC 24.9% Why Académico de Viseu FC is favoured Académico de Viseu FC's Elo (1486) is +39 over Vitória SC (1447); low confidence. Recent: Académico de Viseu FC 1W-2D-2L · Vitória SC 1W-1D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Académico de Viseu FC -0.6, Vitória SC -0.4. Form depth Académico de Viseu FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Vitória SC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Académico de Viseu FC 1.0, Vitória SC 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 53.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Vitória SC has 1 more day of rest (Académico de Viseu FC 33d, Vitória SC 34d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.