Académico de Viseu FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Académico de Viseu FC 42.9% · Draw 30.0% · CD Santa Clara 27.0% Why Académico de Viseu FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1501 vs 1504) — winner depends on context. Recent: Académico de Viseu FC 0W-1D-0L · CD Santa Clara 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Académico de Viseu FC +0.0, CD Santa Clara +0.0. Form depth Académico de Viseu FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). CD Santa Clara: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Académico de Viseu FC 0W, 2D, CD Santa Clara 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 47.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Académico de Viseu FC has 1 more day of rest (Académico de Viseu FC 5d, CD Santa Clara 4d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.