Villarreal CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Villarreal CF 64.0% · Draw 18.6% · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 17.4% Why Villarreal CF is favoured Villarreal CF's Elo (1595) is +154 over RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (1441); high confidence. Recent: Villarreal CF 4W-1D-5L · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2W-2D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Villarreal CF +0.2, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona -0.2. Form depth Villarreal CF: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). RCD Espanyol de Barcelona on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Villarreal CF 1.6, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Villarreal CF 0W, 1D, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-1, 0-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 62.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 64.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.