FC Barcelona scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Barcelona 82.6% · Draw 12.1% · Deportivo Alavés 5.3% Why FC Barcelona is favoured FC Barcelona's Elo (1820) is +344 over Deportivo Alavés (1476); high confidence. Recent: FC Barcelona 8W-0D-2L · Deportivo Alavés 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Barcelona +2.4, Deportivo Alavés +0.3. Form depth FC Barcelona: avg 3.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 5/6 on the road). Deportivo Alavés: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). FC Barcelona on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (FC Barcelona 2.5, Deportivo Alavés 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Barcelona 0W, 2D, Deportivo Alavés 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 3-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 79.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 82.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.