Athletic Club scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Athletic Club 43.9% · Draw 24.2% · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 31.8% Why Athletic Club is favoured Real Sociedad de Fútbol's Elo (1487) is +24 over Athletic Club (1463); high confidence. Recent: Athletic Club 3W-3D-3L · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Athletic Club +0.3, Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.1. Form depth Athletic Club: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Real Sociedad de Fútbol: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Real Sociedad de Fútbol on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Athletic Club 1.6, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Real Sociedad de Fútbol has a stronger recent record (60% vs 33%) — model favours Athletic Club on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Athletic Club 0W, 2D, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-2, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 45.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.