Deportivo Alavés scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Deportivo Alavés 18.3% · Draw 18.4% · Club Atlético de Madrid 63.3% Why Club Atlético de Madrid is favoured Club Atlético de Madrid's Elo (1686) is +210 over Deportivo Alavés (1476); high confidence. Recent: Deportivo Alavés 3W-2D-2L · Club Atlético de Madrid 5W-1D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Deportivo Alavés +0.7, Club Atlético de Madrid +1.0. Form depth Deportivo Alavés: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Club Atlético de Madrid: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Club Atlético de Madrid on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Deportivo Alavés 1.3, Club Atlético de Madrid 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Deportivo Alavés 0W, 2D, Club Atlético de Madrid 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 23.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 18.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Deportivo Alavés has 4 more days of rest (Deportivo Alavés 55d, Club Atlético de Madrid 51d).