Getafe CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Getafe CF 42.0% · Draw 27.9% · Málaga CF 30.1% Why Getafe CF is favoured Málaga CF's Elo (1478) is +50 over Getafe CF (1428); low confidence. Recent: Getafe CF 1W-2D-3L · Málaga CF 0W-3D-3L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Getafe CF -0.7, Málaga CF -1.3. Form depth Getafe CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Málaga CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (Getafe CF 1.2, Málaga CF 0.8) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Getafe CF has 4 more days of rest (Getafe CF 35d, Málaga CF 31d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.