Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Genoa CFC
To win
+$90.00
Total payout
$110.00
Joint prob
25.9%
Combined odds
5.50
Fair odds
3.87
Edge
+42.3%
Expected value: +$8.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.46 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 22% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-13.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Genoa CFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.9% · fair market: 17.6% · edge: +47.4%
Model probabilities Genoa CFC 25.9% · Draw 20.8% · Como 1907 53.4% Why Como 1907 is favoured Como 1907's Elo (1651) is +223 over Genoa CFC (1428); high confidence. Recent: Genoa CFC 0W-0D-2L · Como 1907 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Genoa CFC -1.5, Como 1907 +0.5. Form depth Genoa CFC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Como 1907: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 on the road). Genoa CFC on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Genoa CFC 0W, 5D, Como 1907 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 1-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 16.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 25.9% vs market 17.5% (edge +47.9%, suggested Kelly +9.5% of bankroll).